A Changing Region

In order to determine future framework conditions in the region around Dresden and to investigate appropriate adaptation measures, we need projections of regional climate change within the context of shifting social conditions. Therefore various scenarios are considered within the project to allow the development of alternative adaptation pathways as well as the climate adaptation programme for the region.

Scenarios are useful tools to reveal development potentials that depend on unpredictable framework conditions. They allow us to investigate the impact of our actions and to compare various strategies without precisely knowing the actual future development.

These tasks are accomplished under the following headings:

Climate
Atmospheric chemistry Image: BMU/H.-G. Oed
Socio- economic change Image: BMU/Christoph Busse/transit
Integrated scenarios

At the regional level one must take account of considerable modelling uncertainties when developing climate scenarios. These are closely examined in the project and evaluated using statistical methods. Today in the Dresden region we identify specific trends of rising temperatures, shifting rainfall distribution and potential evaporation (e.g. increasing frequency of heavy rainfall in summer with simultaneous dry spells). Changes in the regional climate can thus both directly and indirectly affect air quality, and consequently the quality of life of the local population (keyword: particulate matter).

Other relevant factors for a regional climate adaption strategy are, for example, population trends or the development of settlement structure (keyword: urban sprawl). Economic framework conditions are also important, such as the development of the gross domestic product or shifts in the price of fuel and raw materials. These all have an economic impact, leading to adaptive steps being taken in trade and industry.

All these developments and processes contribute to the design of the scenario as framework conditions (similar to climate) to produce integrated scenarios. To allow the classification and comparability of scenarios from diverse fields, timeframes and standards for using models and emission paths were defined. In order to produce a realistic scenario it is essential that relevant experienced actors are involved in the process.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact person

Kathrin Riedel
coordinator Modul 2
kathrin.riedel[...]forst.tu-dresden.de

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